One Investor to Another The Blog of Ted Allrich 5:32 PM PST, August 31, 2008 - September morn.....new day, new month.....Gustav, the uninvited guest of New Orleans, roars onto land with everyone watching, holding their collective breath, hoping this isn't a repeat of Katrina....the locals evacuated, caution is the order of the day....only time will reveal the devastation or needless preparation (hopefully).....oil is also in that area...and refiners...they've shut down, employees are gone from the platforms....the sooner they return, the faster flows will come....and lower oil prices....if there's a lot of damage, oil won't continue its downward trend, prices at the pump will hold, start to go higher.....energy stocks will bounce, except for the ones with large holdings in the Gulf.....nothing anyone can do but wait.....the market takes a break on this first day of September....to honor labor without which none of us would enjoy most of what we use every day....I'd also like to honor those hardworking Mexicans here in California who have made this state so much greater with their tireless effort at jobs so many others don't
want, the jobs that take more muscle and sweat than most....muchas gracias.......not that other groups don't work as hard or contribute as much, it's just that I know several of these great guys and know the lives they lead and they deserve some accolades as well.....as for the market in the coming weeks, we're all waiting for that as well: waiting for the Treasury to unveil a plan that may or may not help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unwind their messes without killing the equity and preferred and debt holders; waiting for more economic releases to tell us where the economy was last month or last quarter, hoping it makes us feel better than what the reality is, that we feel every day as housing prices go lower, credit gets tighter and gas goes higher (both for the car and the heater); waiting for earnings that start in October, crossing our fingers that the summer held some surprises, that sales were better than expected (certainly for exporters they were good), that profits will beat analysts' expectations....most likely won't but hope springs eternal......waiting for the Fed to give a clearer reading on what its next move will be in regards to interest rates....waiting, waiting, waiting....it's a big part of investing...that's why real success requires so much patience...most of what we hope will happen often doesn't or is postponed for a quarter or a year because of hurricanes or politics or accounting or something exogenous to the business in which we've invested...but over time, we are rewarded if we buy stocks that keep delivering increasing earnings....after this 3 day weekend (a waiting time for those of us with the stock market in our veins) we'll get some more answers, dribbled out as the days unfold.....be patient, keep your best stocks, and now that summer is over, expect a more normal market, one that has full participation from every suntanned investor returning from the holidays..... Click here to see more of Ted's Blog... |
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