March 10, 2009 - GE at $8.75. Citicorp at $1.40. Bank of America at $4.75. General Motors at $1.90. Ford at $1.75. These numbers don't seem possible, but they are. If you're tempted to buy any of them or many other big names (like AIG or Ambac or Beazer Homes) that seem to be selling for prices never imagined, here's some advice: Know that you don't know enough to make an intelligent investment decision.

The first thing to do is your due diligence, just as you would in any other investment. Then realize that no matter how wonderful the numbers look (some of these stocks are selling at less than 10% of book value and are still profitable), that the numbers are no good for any future calculations. That's because the future just ain't what it used to be. In fact, we're so far from knowing the future that you can call it the great unknown, with a bias toward that no matter what happens, things will only getting worse.

Then you need to have great restraint because the numbers will scream that many of these stocks are screaming buys, if you only invest by the numbers. But all of us know that WaMu screamed and so did Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and CountryWide. But not in a good kind of scream. They screamed because they were mortally wounded. Many investors couldn't differentiate between the screams, then ended up screaming themselves, mostly at the companies, then themselves.

The restraint comes into play when you decide to actually start buying some of these stocks. The only way to "invest" in them is to buy at least 10 different ones and buy a very limited amount. You want to own Citigroup. 100 shares will cost you $140 plus commissions as of this writing. That's the kind of limitations that will keep you out of trouble.

The truth is that Citi may make it. The CEO just announced that the first 2 months of this year were profitable. But the market says that it doesn't think so. With nationalization being discussed in earnest, and large losses still being taken every month in mortgages and credit cards, the big bank may not make it, at least not in the form it's in now.

Bank of America has a similar story but not quite the same. It hasn't borrowed as much TARP money, and the CEO claims to be finished with government money, with a priority of paying the TARP loan. You can buy 100 shares of BAC for $475 plus commissions. If losses continue to grow, it doesn't matter what the CEO says, the bank won't make it. And no one can know if the mortgage and credit losses will grow. Higher unemployment guarantees they will.

The same is true of GM. You can buy 100 shares of the once mighty auto maker for $190 plus commissions. But there is serious discussion within the company and in Washington that maybe the best thing to do is to let the company go bankrupt with a reorganization plan in place, thus wiping out shareholders but allowing the company to continue to operate and then re-emerge with a healthy balance sheet and freed from legacy obligations. Is that worth a $190 bet? Without new money before the end of March, the company states it's going out business. The auto committee from Washington is visiting GM as this is written. Will it grant more money? Nobody knows. If they do, whether the stock rallies depends on how much and what strings are attached.

Ford is a little different story. It hasn't taken a penny from the government and claims it won't. It has a large amount of cash (which it's burning through), enough to continue running as a company for several months. Is that adequate time to see sales of its newest models leave the dealerships' floors? By the way, Ford is one of the most eco-friendly car companies now, with an emphasis on green driving. Many new models are hybrids, and the company believes its future is in eco-friendly cars and trucks. But has it gotten religion too late? It costs $175 plus commission to buy 100 shares of stock and participate in the recovery or the failure.

AIG is another story. It's sucked in tens of billions of dollars and seems to have an open pipeline for more. That's because its demise would have an adverse domino effect on so many other financial institutions that it can't afford to go out of business. The money from the government isn't free. Each time they put more in, they take more equity out, diluting the current shareholders. Now you can buy 100 shares for $35 plus commissions. This company could be completely owned by the government before it's over simply by continuing to add equity as needed, wiping out current shareholders. In May of 2004, the stock was trading above $70 a share.

You might be able to make an argument that GE is in another class. After all, its stock is trading above $8 a share, quite rich for this group. True, it has a very diverse revenue stream, a huge conglomerate, involved in aircraft engines to television to motion pictures to light bulbs. But it also has GE Financial, the Achilles heel. That division made a lot of mortgages and loans to businesses and individuals. How will those loans compare to ones made by banks and other financials? Probably about the same. They'll have a large percentage of problems which will only get worse if unemployment goes higher. You can buy 100 shares for $875 plus commissions.

You get the picture here. For well under $1500 you could own at least 5 to 10 companies that may rebound and give investors a high return. Or they could go to zero. $1500 is a lot of money to gamble. But if you're going to go for it, make sure you spread your money around to have the best chance of winning. Because with most of these companies, that's what you're doing: gambling.

Please Note: All prices were correct at the time of this writing, 3/10.

- Ted Allrich