For Income Investors: Cedar Fair | - Co. Spotlights available via RSS feed
| More Than Fun
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Income is a big part of investors' returns. Stocks, mutual funds and fixed income ideas in this column are featured because they are relatively solid in their ability to pay dividends or interest. We're giving income investors a resource to start their research for investments that give better yields with lower risk. | | FUN | $19.21 | Why It's Featured: Dividend is coming back; sales and profits increasing. Keep an Eye On: Debt reduction; GDP growth. | Dividend Yield | 5.2% | | Dividend/Earnings | 0.9% | | Financial Strength | B | | Div. Date: 9/14 | Ex-Div: 9/1 |
August 17, 2011 - Cedar Fair, L.P. (FUN-NYSE) owns and operates amusement and water parks in the United States and Canada. It operates 11 amusement parks, including Cedar Point located on Lake Erie between Cleveland and Toledo in Sandusky, Ohio; Kings Island located near Cincinnati, Ohio; Canada's Wonderland located near Toronto, Canada; Dorney Park & Wildwater Kingdom located near Allentown in South Whitehall Township, Pennsylvania; Valleyfair located near Minneapolis/St. Paul in Shakopee, Minnesota; Michigan's Adventure located near Muskegon, Michigan; Kings Dominion near Richmond, Virginia; Carowinds in Charlotte, North Carolina; Worlds of Fun located in Kansas City, Missouri; Knott's Berry Farm located near Los Angeles in Buena Park, California; and California's Great America located in Santa Clara, California, as well as operating Gilroy Gardens Family Theme Park in Gilroy, California under a management contract.
The company also owns and operates the Castaway Bay Indoor Waterpark Resort in Sandusky, Ohio; six separately gated outdoor water parks in Missouri, Ohio, and California; and five hotels. Cedar Fair Management, Inc. serves as the general partner of the company. Cedar Fair, L.P. was founded in 1983 and is based in Sandusky, Ohio. Cedar Fair seems to have weathered the economic storm. While sales dipped in 2009 to $916.1 million (down from $996.2 million in '08), they rebounded to $977.6 million last year. This year, 5 analysts have a consensus estimate of $997.09 million, then forecast $1.02 billion for 2012. For the current quarter (ending in September), expect $557.70 million compared to $545 million last year in the third. Earnings didn't fair as well as revenues. They dipped in 2009 to 69 cents, almost half 08's $1.34. Then they crashed to 15 cents last year. This year, those same analysts see a much better finish. Consensus estimate is for $1.01, then they see $1.88 in 2012. For the upcoming third quarter, they predict $2.51 (with a range of $2.06 to $3.04) compared to last year's third that came in at $1.36. Let's look at recent dividend history. That's what income investors focus on. For FUN, it has been anything but. In '07, shareholders received $1.90, then in '08, $1.92. In '09, as the recession hit hard, pay out went to $1.23. Last year, it was 25 cents, paid in the final quarter of the year. Things are improving, however. The board recently upped the payout to 10 cents a share per quarter after starting the year with 8 cents in the first period. Analysts believe by the end of the year, with a special dividend, shareholders should finish with a $1.00 in distributions. Within a few years, they see the dividend at $2.00 a share, a management objective. Irrespective of the earnings, cash flow should be more than adequate to cover the payments. Cedar Fair is all about family fun. And when a family isn't earning money, it's hard to have fun. The company is sensitive to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The more it grows, the more it reflects consumer spending (which makes up about 2/3 of the GDP). Consumers start spending on discretionary items, like fun, when they feel their jobs are secure or they regain employment. In the second quarter, consumers felt a little better, as reflected in FUN's numbers. At its theme parks, attendance was up as well as average guest per-capita spending through the July 4th weekend. At their resorts, revenues were higher by 3% compared to last year at the same time. Some analysts see GDP growing by 2%, on average, over the next several quarters. That should mean good attendance as consumers look to maximize their vacation dollars with relatively lower cost venues like amusement parks rather than distant, exotic adventures. To help increase foot traffic, FUN has been upgrading certain parks with new rides and better facilities. To further help profits, management should be using some of its increased cash flow to reduce debt over the next several years. Debt is 97% of the balance sheet, an extremely high level that works well when rates are low and attendance is high. It does lots of damage when rates are high and attendance is low. Look for the company to buy back some of its outstanding issues and pay down other borrowing. Essential numbers: Market Cap is $1.07 billion. Forward P/E is 10.22. Price to sales ratio is 1.08. Price to book is 20.37. Operating margin for the last 12 months was 22.49% while Profit margin was negative 6.84%. Return on equity was -83.04%. Return on assets was 6.25%. Total cash is $35.68 million or 65 cents a share. Total debt is $1.75 billion. Debt it equity is 3355%. Current ratio is .44. Book value per share is 94 cents. Beta is 1.32. The stock is up 53.17% in the last 52 weeks. There are 55.34 million shares Outstanding with a Float of 43.69 million. Insiders own 21.66% of the stock. Institutions have 34% of the Float. There are risks to owning FUN. Leverage is too high for many investors. But ones who believe the economy is mending and GDP will grow, FUN represents one way of participating in an economic recovery. If analysts are right and management pays down some debt while sales and profits increase, this stock could reward shareholders with income and capital gains for the next several years. |