There are no safe havens in the stock market. Every stock carries risk. But some less than others. This column features stocks that have shown one or more of the following characteristics: less volatility, better earnings, larger market caps, safe and increasing dividends. In these times of turmoil, our goal is to show readers better opportunities for investing with fewer risks.

June 16, 2009 - Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM-NYSE) engages in the exploration, production, transportation, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company also engages in the manufacture of petroleum products, and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. It manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, and other specialty products.

One of the most striking elements of XOM is its size. Market Capitalization is $354.56 billion. There are 4.88 billion shares outstanding. Last quarter, the company had revenues of $64 billion. This is one big company. But big doesn't necessarily mean safe, unless a lot of other numbers contibute. In the case of XOM, most of them do. The first one is that the company has over $25 billion in cash.

However, earnings are down this year. The price of a barrel of oil is almost half of what it was a year ago when the company reported earnings of $8.69. This year, 17 analysts have a consensus estimate of $4.05, then $5.94 next year with a range of $4.39 to $7.75. Where an analyst stands on that spectrum depends on what they think the price of oil will be. For the June quarter, look for 96 cents a share, well below the $2.27 earned last year in the second period. For the third quarter, analysts see $1.07, down from $2.59 made in the same quarter last year. So earnings growth is not the story here.

Revenues followed the same pattern with total sales last year of $477.36 billion. This year, analysts forecast $321.69 billion. Next year, they see $395.95 billion. Again, the price of oil will dictate what that number is.

XOM is much more than just oil, however. This year, analysts see a large increase in liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar. Furthermore, there are projects currently in West Africa, Russia, Canada and Australia that should bring in large amounts of production next year and several years beyond which should offset decreases in mature fields. The company made large investments in new production a few years ago when oil and natural gas prices started to rise. When the price of both commodities advance again, those projects will pay off handsomely.

The company has high quality assets and lots of money in the bank. It never has large write-offs from bad projects. It has a high operating efficiency now and with new fields coming on line next year and for several more years, that efficiency should only increase as volume does. The only thing it can't control is the price of oil and natural gas. Both should see higher demand as emerging nations need more and more of both along with developed nations when their economies recover.

But there are a few concerns worth noting. First, when the price of oil and/or natural gas is falling, the company can't do anything about it. Revenues and earnings go up and down with those prices. Second, because it's such a large company, it requires meaningful volume in oil or gas in order to make a difference in the bottom line, volume that is getting harder and harder to find. Third, demand for gasoline may have hit a peak as alternative energy sources are becoming available for cars, generators, and other motorized machines.

More numbers: P/E is 9.5 but the forward p/e is 12.2. Price to Sales ratio is .88 while Price to book is 3.36. Operating margin for the last 12 months was 13.56% while Profit margin was 9.52%. Return on Equity was 33.8%. Cash per share is $5.15. Total debt is $9.2 billion, only 8% of capital. Current ratio is 1.31. Book Value per share is $21.92. The annual dividend is $1.68 for a yield of 2.3%.

Exxon Mobil has a lot of good numbers, many of them very large. The stock had an ever increasing price line from late 2002 until early last year when it started down. It has come off its bottom and is moving in tandem with the latest uptick in oil prices. If oil continues higher, so will the stock. So the one major question any investor should ask is: where will the price of oil go over the next few years? If your answer is higher, then XOM is definitely worth more of your time to investigate.

- Company Web site: www.exxonmobil.com

- Ted Allrich