For Aggressive Investors: CTC Media | - Co. Spotlights available via RSS feed
| Let Us Entertain You, Comrade | 
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This column is for investors willing to take more risk and potentially receive more reward. The stocks mentioned in this column are not recommended to buy or sell. They're brought to your attention so you can investigate them further to determine if they fit your risk profile. Most of the stocks will have less than $1 billion of market capitalization, have more volatility than other stocks, and oftentimes no earnings. And some will have tremendous stories. | | CTCM | $22.53 | Why It's Featured: Good growth in revenues and earnings. Danger Zones: Escalating tensions with the West. Large block for sale. | Forward P/E | 14 | | Earn. Growth | 28.5% | | Projected Sales Growth | 27% | | Market Cap. | $3.44B |
August 14, 2008 - CTC Media, Inc. (CTCM-NASDAQ) operates television networks that offer entertainment programming in Russia. It operates CTC Network targeted principally at 6-54 year-oldviewers and the Domashny (Home) Network targeted principally at 25-60year-old women. The company offers Russian series and shows, foreign movies, foreign series, animation, and other programming, such as documentaries.
The CTC Network's signal is carried by approximately 350 television stations and local cable operators, which include 19 owned-and-operated stations and 23 unmanned repeater transmitters. The Domashny Network's signal is carried by approximately 230 television stations and local cable operators, including 13 owned-and-operated stations and 9 unmanned repeater stations. As of December 31, 2007, it had contractual programming rights for approximately 10,200 hours of programming. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Moscow, Russia. Looking for a way to get in on the booming Russian economy? This may be it. The stock's been public for 2 years. In the last year, revenues were up 27% to $472 million while profits increased by 25%, putting earnings per share at 86 cents vs 69 cents. In the most recent quarter, earnings were up 59% compare to the same quarter last year. 12 analysts give a consensus estimate of $1.27 this year and $1.59 next year. For the next 5 years, expectations are for earnings to grow 28.4% a year, on average. Sales for this year are seen at $658.7 million, up 39.5% above last year. For 2009, analysts look for $838.27 million, up 27.3%. (For a full update on this stock, please read the transcript of the second quarter earnings call (recorded on July 29), at this link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/87750-ctc-media-inc-q2-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo) On July 30, Alfa Group announced its intentions to sell its 26% equity stake in CTC Media to Modern Time Group (MTG), its Swedish partner, or swap the stock for a stake in MTG. That would increase MTG's equity ownership in CTC Media to 66%. According to reports, Alfa has been trying to sell its stake for several months to MTG. The reason this may be important is that if the sale doesn't happen, and Alfa is detemined to sell, those shares may go on the open market. That would definitely drive the stock price lower. But most likely, because of the large block, Alfa wouldn't burden the market by selling bits at a time. It would look for a buyer of the whole thing or most of it. CTC Media is the fourth most-watched broadcaster in Russia. It's the largest TV network outside of direct or indirect state control. Advertising revenues are strong. Industry analysts predict ad growth of 25% to 30% for the advertising market in 2008, benefitting from a healthy Russian GDP and an expanding consumer market. More numbers: Market cap is $3.44 billion. P/E is 21 for trailing 12 months, 14.23 for the forward 12 months. Price to sales is 6.05. Price to Book is 4.63. Profit margin was 29.65 in the last 12 months, operating margin 43.4%. Returnon Equity for the 12 months was a strong 27.2%. Debt to Equity is .21 with total debt of $155.48 million. Book value is $4.85. Beta is .78. The stock's range was from $20.13 to $31.75 over the 52 weeks. There are 152.16 million shares outstanding. Institutions own 71.67% are held by insiders. There is no dividend. CTCM is a interesting play on the Russian economy. With the recent invasion of Georgia, tensions will escalate between the U.S. and Russia. How that would affect tv viewing or ad revenues can only be guessed. But if investors are looking for a way to participate in Russian economic growth, CTCM will be worth their while investigating. - Company Web site: www.ctcmedia.ru - Ted Allrich |