For Aggressive Investors: BJ's Restaurants | - Co. Spotlights available via RSS feed
| Serving Up Profits
| 
|
This column is for investors willing to take more risk and potentially receive more reward. The stocks mentioned in this column are not recommended to buy or sell. They're brought to your attention so you can investigate them further to determine if they fit your risk profile. Most of the stocks will have less than $1 billion of market capitalization, have more volatility than other stocks, and oftentimes no earnings. And some will have tremendous stories. | | BJRI | $16.52 | Why It's Featured: Prospering in difficult times. Danger Zones: High valuation, locations in high unemployment states. | Forward P/E | 26 | | Earn. Growth | 22.5% | | Projected Sales Growth | 20.5% | | Market Cap. | $434M |
September 9, 2009 - BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI-NASDAQ) owns and operates casual dining restaurants in the United States. The company has restaurants under the BJ's Restaurant & Brewery brand name, which includes a brewery within the restaurant; BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse that receives the beer it sells from its breweries or an approved third party craft brewer of proprietary recipe beers; and BJ's Pizza & Grill, which is a smaller format, full service restaurant.
As of December 30, 2008, it owned and operated 82 casual dining restaurants located in California, Texas, Arizona,Colorado, Oregon, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Indiana, Louisiana, and Washington, and licenses 1 restaurant in Lahaina, Maui. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Huntington Beach, California. BJ's hasn't felt the recession too much. Revenues and earnings are growing in this tough economic time. Over the last 5 years, sales averaged an annual increase of 19% while earnings improved, on average, by 17.5% each year. For the next 5 years, look for revenues to grow by 20.5% a year while earnings bump up to 22.67% increase per year. Revenues were $238.9 million in 2006, then went to $316.1 million, followed by $374.1 million. This year, the consensus of 15 analysts is for sales to reach $423.66 million and next year to hit $484.85 million. Earnings were 41 cents a share in 2006, then 44 cents, flat at 44 cents again in 2008. But this year analysts have a consensus estimate of 53 cents and next year see 63 cents. Third quarter earnings will be out in October. Look for 13 cents compared to 8 cents in the same quarter last year. For the fourth quarter, consensus is for 11 cents, down from 13 cents last year in the same period.
The thing to remember is that BJ's Restaurants are mostly located in high unemployment states: California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada in particular. Even with that challenge, second quarter results were impressive, up 17% in revenues to almost $108 million. Earnings for the second quarter beat estimated by 3 cents a share, hitting 16 cents, well above the 11 cents made in the same quarter last year. Of course, not all is well. Same-store sales fell 1.4% on a year-over-year comparison. Still, the industry average was down 6% in the same period. BJ's management is pro-active in these tough times. It's initiated some new services for clients: online ordering, call-ahead seating and home delivery. It's expanding beer offerings and considering a catering service. Consumers are responding positively. These and other new ideas should keep the company ahead of the competition. The stock hit a low in November, bottoming at $6.63 a share, down from a high in late 2007 of $24.80. It's more than doubled to recent levels of $16 - $17. Valuations at these prices is a little high. Unless you believe the economy is about to turn, in which case, all estimates are subject to change, for the better. More numbers: Trailing p/e is 36. Price to sales is 1.06. Price to book is 1.77. Operating margin was 4.44% for the last 12 months with a Profit margin of 3.07%. Return on equity was 5.3%. Total debt is $7 million. Current ratio is .83. Book Value per share is $9.32. There are 26.09 million shares outstanding with a Float of 19.66 million. Insiders own 26.57%. There is no dividend. Aggressive investors should be impressed with management as it continues to evolve the restaurants to survive and thrive in these difficult times. Debt is very low. Profits are increasing, as are revenues. While the stock reflects much of the current good news, with any uptick in the economy, this stock should move ahead nicely, maybe getting back to its old high of $24.80. - Company Web site: www.bjsrestaurants.com - Ted Allrich |