This column is for investors willing to take more risk and potentially receive more reward.  The stocks mentioned in this column are not recommended to buy or sell.  They're brought to your attention so you can investigate them further to determine if they fit your risk profile.  Most of the stocks will have less than $1 billion of market capitalization, have more volatility than other stocks, and oftentimes no earnings.  And some will have tremendous stories.

December 26, 2008 - Almost Family, Inc. (AFAM-NASDAQ) and its subsidiaries provide home health care services in Florida, Kentucky, Ohio, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Alabama, Indiana, Illinois,and Missouri. It operates in two segments, Visiting Nurse (VN) and Personal Care (PC).

The PC segment, which operates under the trade name Almost Family, provides services in patients' homes on an as-needed, hourly, or live-in basis. These services include personal care, medication management, meal preparation, caregiver respite, and homemaking. It offers these services to patients, who are admitted to skilled nursing facilities for long term custodial care. As of December 31, 2007, Almost Family operated 33 Medicare-certified home health agencies with 51 locations and 22 personal care locations. The company, formerly known as Caretenders HealthCorp., was founded in 1985. It changed its name to Almost Family, Inc. in 2000. The company is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

Here's what caught my eye: Revenues went from $91.8 million in 2006 to $132.1 million in 2007. This year, analysts predict they will be $206 million and next year, $261.09 million. That's an increase of 184% in 4 years. And the earnings are doing even better.

In 2005, they were 52 cents a share, then went to 80 cents. Last year, they were $1.40. The average analysts' estimate for this year is $2.09 and for next year $2.50. That's 380% in 5 years. Clearly, what Almost Family offers is something people want.

The stock price reflects that good news, having gone from a low this year of $16.60 to a high of $53.85. But it has cooled since reaching its recent high, down about 20%. Is now a good time to pick it up?

Here's what we know: With the number of Americans over the age of 65 expected to hit 70million by 2030, seniors will make up nearly one-fifth of the population. The number of octogenarians is expected to triple. That's a lot of people who will need help. Most prefer it in their homes, something Almost Family offers. So demographics couldn't be more favorable for the company.

More numbers: Quarterly earnings will be out In January. The average for 6 analysts following the company is for 55 cents a share, up from 37 cents a share in the last quarter of 2007 (up 48.6%). For the first quarter of 2009, look for 58 cents a share, well above the 45 cents made in the first quarter of this year. Earnings surprises (the amount above analysts estimates) for the last 4 quarters were 8.8%, 25%, 31.6% and 29.5% respectively. The company is growing earnings faster than analysts think.

Trailing P/E is 22 while the forward P/E is 17. Price to Sales for the last 12 months was 1.95. Price to Book was 3.97. Operating margin was 12.5% and Profit margin was 7.22%. Return on Equity was 22.11%. Total debt is $35.11 million. Total Debt to Equity is .393. The current ratio is 1.29. Book Value per share is $10.98. There are 8.14 million shares outstanding with a float of 6.99 million. Insiders own 23.59%. Institutions have 55.5%. There is no dividend.

Almost Family is doing almost everything right. Sales and profits are advancing at admirable rates while the stock's valuation is still reasonable. Analysts are predicting continued good growth. There's a lot to like about this family, one aggressive investors will want to get to know better if they're interested in a medical service company.

Company Web site: www.almost-family.com

- Ted Allrich